It is easier to impress people who know you less, because you can choose what to show them, and they don’t see the rest.
For example, a painter can show his 20 best paintings he made during the last 10 years at an exhibition. People are deeply impressed. His wife also knows about hundreds of paintings he destroyed because he thought they were ugly, and about months when he didn’t paint anything and he was just sitting depressed at home and drinking alcohol. His wife is much less impressed. She would appreciate more help at home and with kids; also the money he brings is negligible, and he spends most of it on alcohol anyway.
This is a fictional example, but the idea is that the public sees your best, while the people around you see your average.
Who knows, maybe Robin Hanson shares his contrarian ideas with his wife first, she convinces him to abandon the most absurd ones, and he publishes the rest. Maybe after hearing all the crazy ideas we didn’t hear, it made perfect sense to distrust his ideas about selling stocks. -- I am just imagining all this; I have no evidence for that.
It is easier to impress people who know you less, because you can choose what to show them, and they don’t see the rest.
For example, a painter can show his 20 best paintings he made during the last 10 years at an exhibition. People are deeply impressed. His wife also knows about hundreds of paintings he destroyed because he thought they were ugly, and about months when he didn’t paint anything and he was just sitting depressed at home and drinking alcohol. His wife is much less impressed. She would appreciate more help at home and with kids; also the money he brings is negligible, and he spends most of it on alcohol anyway.
This is a fictional example, but the idea is that the public sees your best, while the people around you see your average.
Who knows, maybe Robin Hanson shares his contrarian ideas with his wife first, she convinces him to abandon the most absurd ones, and he publishes the rest. Maybe after hearing all the crazy ideas we didn’t hear, it made perfect sense to distrust his ideas about selling stocks. -- I am just imagining all this; I have no evidence for that.