Mathematically, refusing to make a prediction may be equivalent to going with some prior distribution of possible values.
Socially, it’s different. For example, people have different “prior distributions”, so talking about your one explicitly exposes a lot of information about you, while refusing to make a prediction exposes little. (You might get into unnecessary conflicts over the parts where the probability is small anyway, so it wouldn’t make a practical difference.)
I suspect that refusing to make prediction, even for yourself, is just an internalization of this rule. You know that doing something would make other people laught at you, so it feels silly to do even if no one is watching.
I agree with that… personally I have tried several times to start a private journal, and every time I basically end up failing to write down any important thoughts because I am inhibited by the mental image of how someone else might interpret what I write—even though in fact no one will read it. Subconsciously it seems much more “defensible” to write nothing at all, and therefore effectively leave my thoughts unexamined, than to commit to having thought something that might be socially unacceptable.
I agree w/ both above comments. This resonates and seems to provide an explanation that feels right. (There are thoughts I still won’t journal or will only write in shorthand because they’re so private.)
Mathematically, refusing to make a prediction may be equivalent to going with some prior distribution of possible values.
Socially, it’s different. For example, people have different “prior distributions”, so talking about your one explicitly exposes a lot of information about you, while refusing to make a prediction exposes little. (You might get into unnecessary conflicts over the parts where the probability is small anyway, so it wouldn’t make a practical difference.)
I suspect that refusing to make prediction, even for yourself, is just an internalization of this rule. You know that doing something would make other people laught at you, so it feels silly to do even if no one is watching.
I agree with that… personally I have tried several times to start a private journal, and every time I basically end up failing to write down any important thoughts because I am inhibited by the mental image of how someone else might interpret what I write—even though in fact no one will read it. Subconsciously it seems much more “defensible” to write nothing at all, and therefore effectively leave my thoughts unexamined, than to commit to having thought something that might be socially unacceptable.
I agree w/ both above comments. This resonates and seems to provide an explanation that feels right. (There are thoughts I still won’t journal or will only write in shorthand because they’re so private.)
How do you know this?
Note the difference between what you intend and what might happen to you and your property regardless of your intentions.
Encrypting/obscuring it does help a little bit, but doesn’t eliminate the problem, so it’s not just that.