This implies a likely 2.5 yr time for ‘develop capabilities silently’ during which apparently even internal deployments are subject to random restrictions. That’s a long time for a period in which ability to raise money, backed by rising revenue as products improve, is otherwise a huge factor in rate of advancement.
apparently even internal deployments are subject to random restrictions
The government has yet to demonstrate the ability to restrict internal deployments of unnamed models (not literally unnamed, but without publicly facing names).
It would not be difficult to fine-tune or modify a model a bit and have a “formally defensible reason” to call it something else.
Of course, if the government really wants to control this kind of thing (at least for large and well visible US-based corporations), it can likely do so, but that would take more than serving export control orders.
Midterms are this November and given the political headwinds favoring substantial changes in the composition/control of Congress it looks like that’s the first major inflection opportunity.
This implies a likely 2.5 yr time for ‘develop capabilities silently’ during which apparently even internal deployments are subject to random restrictions. That’s a long time for a period in which ability to raise money, backed by rising revenue as products improve, is otherwise a huge factor in rate of advancement.
The government has yet to demonstrate the ability to restrict internal deployments of unnamed models (not literally unnamed, but without publicly facing names).
It would not be difficult to fine-tune or modify a model a bit and have a “formally defensible reason” to call it something else.
Of course, if the government really wants to control this kind of thing (at least for large and well visible US-based corporations), it can likely do so, but that would take more than serving export control orders.
Midterms are this November and given the political headwinds favoring substantial changes in the composition/control of Congress it looks like that’s the first major inflection opportunity.