Lesswrong is very good at taking known facts to their predictable conclusion, even when there isn’t a society-wide consensus on them. Especially when the conclusion is outside the norm. Examples include:
Predicting the extent of COVID by following the exponential
‘Feeling the AGI’ a few years before the mainstream based on rapidly doubling compute and earlier developments that weren’t mainstream (like GPT-2)
Currently unresolved examples might include:
Global population will not hit the predicted peaks because birthrates continue to fall, which the most prominent predictions don’t account for (they assume birthrates will hold at their current low levels).
Lesswrong is very good at taking known facts to their predictable conclusion, even when there isn’t a society-wide consensus on them. Especially when the conclusion is outside the norm. Examples include:
Predicting the extent of COVID by following the exponential
‘Feeling the AGI’ a few years before the mainstream based on rapidly doubling compute and earlier developments that weren’t mainstream (like GPT-2)
Currently unresolved examples might include:
Global population will not hit the predicted peaks because birthrates continue to fall, which the most prominent predictions don’t account for (they assume birthrates will hold at their current low levels).
IABIED