The Social Sciences are often very unscientific. I want to do to economics and foreign policy analysis what Jared Diamond and other similar authors have done with history.
These two sentences may contradict each other. I’d suggest that Jared Diamond is famous as a multidisciplinarian pop-sci author. I don’t mean that as an insult to him at all. He has sold a lot of books, and has interested the public in ideas, which is great as far as it goes. But if you want to bring more rigor to social science, I don’t think Jared Diamond’s writings on history of all subjects should be your model.
Maybe you should redefine your goal to popularizing science. That wouldn’t be bad if you can do it well. Even so, if you want to popularize real science, you’ve got to get a taste for real rigor. One place to start would be diving deep into the mathematics of statistics.
Beyond that, when reading popular social science of any kind, especially any big theories which explain all of history, set your bullshit detector on high. Just assume that Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Paul Krugman are just wrong. A fortiori, Jared DIamond.
I understand placing a low prior on ideologues and pop social sciences in general. I don’t believe Diamond should be considered either of those, though. I’ve read Guns, Germs, and Steel and most of Collapse, and I haven’t really seen any attempts by him to sweep any problems under the rug. He didn’t seem to be oversimplifying things, to me, when I read him.
Could you recommend a criticism of Diamond’s material to me?
I think you misunderstand me. Jared Diamond is a serious academic in good standing. I did not say he was an ideologue. Apparently, Professor Diamond has a doctorate in physiology, but is currently described as a professor of geography. He is not a professional historian. In any case, the discipline of History is noble, but it is not always described as a social science at all.
But both Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse are pop sci, not that there’s anything wrong with that. They were marketed to an audience of intelligent nonexperts. They were never intended to be serious peer-reviewed academic studies.
So that’s three strikes against these works as bringing rigor to social science.
Again, this is not an attack on Professor Diamond at all. Carl Sagan’s Cosmos was pop sci, and was wonderful. Richard Dawkins has written some great pop sci. So have E.O. Wilson, and Stephen Hawking etc. etc. But their serious academic work is much more dense and technical, and was addressed to a far more narrow and critical audience. Rigourous works never, ever make it to the top of the New York Times bestseller list.
Iif you want a criticism of pop sci in general, it is that it might be used as an end-run to avoid peer review. An unscrupulous academic might use his or her credentials to dazzle the public into metaphorically buying snake oil, maybe for the sake of celebrity and money. Beware of Stephen Jay Gould .
However, I think Guns, Germs, and Steel might be about as rigorous as that era of history can ever get. I’ve never encountered any historical arguments which cover such an unknown time period with such breadth and depth. If he were to increase the rigor of his arguments, we’d lose any chance at an overall picture.
Just because the books are accessible to the masses doesn’t mean that the books aren’t rigorous, which is what you almost seem to be implying with your above comment. Certainly, they’re not perfectly scientific and can’t be readily tested. But that can never happen in these fields, and the goal is only to move towards science as an ideal. You say that they weren’t intended to be peer reviewed, but I guess I’m sort of confused as to why you believe that. There’s nothing precluding experts from reviewing Diamond’s findings, as far as I can see.
Regardless, there are some really really really bad social science arguments out there. If the average social science argument, or even some of the best social science arguments, reached a level of rigor and excellence comparable to Guns, Germs, and Steel then the field would be improved a hundred fold. Maybe this means that I’ve got pathetic standards for what constitutes rigor, but I prefer to think that I’m being realistic, as I think improving IR and economics to even this level of rigor is already a near impossible task.
These two sentences may contradict each other. I’d suggest that Jared Diamond is famous as a multidisciplinarian pop-sci author. I don’t mean that as an insult to him at all. He has sold a lot of books, and has interested the public in ideas, which is great as far as it goes. But if you want to bring more rigor to social science, I don’t think Jared Diamond’s writings on history of all subjects should be your model.
Maybe you should redefine your goal to popularizing science. That wouldn’t be bad if you can do it well. Even so, if you want to popularize real science, you’ve got to get a taste for real rigor. One place to start would be diving deep into the mathematics of statistics.
Beyond that, when reading popular social science of any kind, especially any big theories which explain all of history, set your bullshit detector on high. Just assume that Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Paul Krugman are just wrong. A fortiori, Jared DIamond.
I understand placing a low prior on ideologues and pop social sciences in general. I don’t believe Diamond should be considered either of those, though. I’ve read Guns, Germs, and Steel and most of Collapse, and I haven’t really seen any attempts by him to sweep any problems under the rug. He didn’t seem to be oversimplifying things, to me, when I read him.
Could you recommend a criticism of Diamond’s material to me?
I think you misunderstand me. Jared Diamond is a serious academic in good standing. I did not say he was an ideologue. Apparently, Professor Diamond has a doctorate in physiology, but is currently described as a professor of geography. He is not a professional historian. In any case, the discipline of History is noble, but it is not always described as a social science at all.
But both Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse are pop sci, not that there’s anything wrong with that. They were marketed to an audience of intelligent nonexperts. They were never intended to be serious peer-reviewed academic studies.
So that’s three strikes against these works as bringing rigor to social science.
Again, this is not an attack on Professor Diamond at all. Carl Sagan’s Cosmos was pop sci, and was wonderful. Richard Dawkins has written some great pop sci. So have E.O. Wilson, and Stephen Hawking etc. etc. But their serious academic work is much more dense and technical, and was addressed to a far more narrow and critical audience. Rigourous works never, ever make it to the top of the New York Times bestseller list.
Iif you want a criticism of pop sci in general, it is that it might be used as an end-run to avoid peer review. An unscrupulous academic might use his or her credentials to dazzle the public into metaphorically buying snake oil, maybe for the sake of celebrity and money. Beware of Stephen Jay Gould .
I misunderstood you earlier, yes.
However, I think Guns, Germs, and Steel might be about as rigorous as that era of history can ever get. I’ve never encountered any historical arguments which cover such an unknown time period with such breadth and depth. If he were to increase the rigor of his arguments, we’d lose any chance at an overall picture.
Just because the books are accessible to the masses doesn’t mean that the books aren’t rigorous, which is what you almost seem to be implying with your above comment. Certainly, they’re not perfectly scientific and can’t be readily tested. But that can never happen in these fields, and the goal is only to move towards science as an ideal. You say that they weren’t intended to be peer reviewed, but I guess I’m sort of confused as to why you believe that. There’s nothing precluding experts from reviewing Diamond’s findings, as far as I can see.
Regardless, there are some really really really bad social science arguments out there. If the average social science argument, or even some of the best social science arguments, reached a level of rigor and excellence comparable to Guns, Germs, and Steel then the field would be improved a hundred fold. Maybe this means that I’ve got pathetic standards for what constitutes rigor, but I prefer to think that I’m being realistic, as I think improving IR and economics to even this level of rigor is already a near impossible task.