I’m pretty sure there’s no good answer to this, yet. I have my own intuitions, which are vastly different from everyone else’s—but the general pattern of what actually happens seems to be “keep going until some kind of cultural tipping point happens, the current regime loses the Mandate of Heaven, and a revolution puts them all up against the wall.”
Some people are really good at telling when to foment a revolution, but this seems regrettably uncorrelated with being good at telling whether the revolution is justified, or will lead to better results.
I’m pretty sure there’s no good answer to this, yet. I have my own intuitions, which are vastly different from everyone else’s—but the general pattern of what actually happens seems to be “keep going until some kind of cultural tipping point happens, the current regime loses the Mandate of Heaven, and a revolution puts them all up against the wall.”
Some people are really good at telling when to foment a revolution, but this seems regrettably uncorrelated with being good at telling whether the revolution is justified, or will lead to better results.