The probability to compute is the probability that your vote will decide the election
I think this should be the probability of your decision procedure deciding the election. If many people are using similar decision procedures, the decision they follow commands their combined votes, and correspondingly the probability that the decision matters goes up when there are more similarly-deciding people. From this point of view, the voters in an election are not individuals, but decision procedures, each of which has a certain number of votes, and each decision procedure can decide whether it’s useful to cast its many votes. A decision procedure that is followed by many people, but thinks that it only commands one vote is mistaken on this point of fact, and so will make suboptimal decisions.
A good example of this is how certain very simplistic decision procedures, like “single issue voters”, can have influence far above and beyond their numbers. If 5% of the population will always vote based on one specific issue, and that is both known and understood by politicians, then even if they are in the minority, they have a major amount of influence over that one issue, because that decision procedure is so significant. Examples: gun lobbies, labor groups, abortion, ect.
I think this should be the probability of your decision procedure deciding the election. If many people are using similar decision procedures, the decision they follow commands their combined votes, and correspondingly the probability that the decision matters goes up when there are more similarly-deciding people. From this point of view, the voters in an election are not individuals, but decision procedures, each of which has a certain number of votes, and each decision procedure can decide whether it’s useful to cast its many votes. A decision procedure that is followed by many people, but thinks that it only commands one vote is mistaken on this point of fact, and so will make suboptimal decisions.
Good point.
A good example of this is how certain very simplistic decision procedures, like “single issue voters”, can have influence far above and beyond their numbers. If 5% of the population will always vote based on one specific issue, and that is both known and understood by politicians, then even if they are in the minority, they have a major amount of influence over that one issue, because that decision procedure is so significant. Examples: gun lobbies, labor groups, abortion, ect.