I upvoted. While I disagree with most of the reasoning, it seems relatively clear to me that going against community opinion is the main reason for the downvotes. Consider this: If an author well known for his work in forecasting had pregresitered that he was going to write a bunch of not fully fleshed out arguments in favor or against updating in a particular direction, most people here would be encouraging of publishing it. I dont think there has ever been a consistent standard for “only publish highly thought out arguments” here, and we should not engage in isolated demands for rigor here, even if the topic is somewhat dicey.
I upvoted. While I disagree with most of the reasoning, it seems relatively clear to me that going against community opinion is the main reason for the downvotes. Consider this: If an author well known for his work in forecasting had pregresitered that he was going to write a bunch of not fully fleshed out arguments in favor or against updating in a particular direction, most people here would be encouraging of publishing it. I dont think there has ever been a consistent standard for “only publish highly thought out arguments” here, and we should not engage in isolated demands for rigor here, even if the topic is somewhat dicey.