These don’t seem like esoteric failures where it’s plausible that the hypothetical isn’t fair, or where the dynamic inconsistency is plausibly explained as being caused by changing values, or where there’s a fundamental tradeoff between the harms and value of new information. The errors happen in very mundane situations, and to me they look like dumb and surely-avoidable accounting errors.
More precisely: I think these failures probably enables dutch books that CDT isn’t susceptible to.
So it’s not just that insufficient updatelessness fails to capture some potential value that you could have gotten if you were more updateless. It’s that it’s actively worse than CDT in some cases.
And that’s a large part of why I now feel more unhappy about EDT. I feel like I have a better sense of what my beliefs are than what my prior is. If EDT requires me to act according to my prior (and will lead to me making stupid decisions if I instead act according to changing beliefs) then I’m not sure exactly how to do that.
More precisely: I think these failures probably enables dutch books that CDT isn’t susceptible to.
So it’s not just that insufficient updatelessness fails to capture some potential value that you could have gotten if you were more updateless. It’s that it’s actively worse than CDT in some cases.
And that’s a large part of why I now feel more unhappy about EDT. I feel like I have a better sense of what my beliefs are than what my prior is. If EDT requires me to act according to my prior (and will lead to me making stupid decisions if I instead act according to changing beliefs) then I’m not sure exactly how to do that.