Tracking your predictions and improving your calibration over time is good. So is practicing making outside-view estimates based on related numerical data. But I think diversity is good.
If you start going back through historical F1 data as prediction exercises, I expect the main thing that will happen is you’ll learn a lot about the history of F1. Secondarily, you’ll get better at avoiding your own biases, but in a way that’s concentrated on your biases relevant to F1 predictions.
If you already want to learn more about the history of F1, then go for it, it’s not hurting anyone :) Estimating more diverse things will probably better prepare you for making future non-F1 estimates, but if you’re going to pay attention to F1 anyhow it might be a fun thing to track.
Sounds like it is not a good idea for me then. I feel I already know a lot about the history of Formula One and while I am by no means an expert and there is no doubt more opportunity to learn, it sounds like these bias-avoiding skills won’t be very transferable into real life. I was wondering if the unique mix of high density of statistics as well as my interest in the subject would be a good launching off point but it sounds like you believe it’s non-transferable- correct?
Tracking your predictions and improving your calibration over time is good. So is practicing making outside-view estimates based on related numerical data. But I think diversity is good.
If you start going back through historical F1 data as prediction exercises, I expect the main thing that will happen is you’ll learn a lot about the history of F1. Secondarily, you’ll get better at avoiding your own biases, but in a way that’s concentrated on your biases relevant to F1 predictions.
If you already want to learn more about the history of F1, then go for it, it’s not hurting anyone :) Estimating more diverse things will probably better prepare you for making future non-F1 estimates, but if you’re going to pay attention to F1 anyhow it might be a fun thing to track.
Sounds like it is not a good idea for me then. I feel I already know a lot about the history of Formula One and while I am by no means an expert and there is no doubt more opportunity to learn, it sounds like these bias-avoiding skills won’t be very transferable into real life. I was wondering if the unique mix of high density of statistics as well as my interest in the subject would be a good launching off point but it sounds like you believe it’s non-transferable- correct?
Thank you for the response!