It would be interesting to have at least one question in the general domain of economic/political forecasting, for two reasons: (1) such questions have some practical interest; (2) they can be tested later. (Especially valuable if we ask for confidence limits or something, so that calibration as well as accuracy can be tested.)
I don’t have strong feelings about what such questions would be best; anyone who agrees with me that there should be such questions and does have strong feelings about what questions might put them in replies to this comment. Random examples: length and depth of the current recession; likely relative importance of (say) US, China, Europe, India in 20 years’ time.
It would be interesting to have at least one question in the general domain of economic/political forecasting, for two reasons: (1) such questions have some practical interest; (2) they can be tested later. (Especially valuable if we ask for confidence limits or something, so that calibration as well as accuracy can be tested.)
I don’t have strong feelings about what such questions would be best; anyone who agrees with me that there should be such questions and does have strong feelings about what questions might put them in replies to this comment. Random examples: length and depth of the current recession; likely relative importance of (say) US, China, Europe, India in 20 years’ time.