Priors don’t update. That’s why they’re called “priors”.
John shows up on time for meetings 30%.
John has been reprimanded.
I think there is 95% chance he will be on time for meetings from now on.
You could just say that 95% is my prior for P(OnTime|Reprimanded), but I am not sure people think this way; “prior has been updated” seems more appropriate (when the condition is history).
John shows up on time for meetings 30%.
John has been reprimanded.
I think there is 95% chance he will be on time for meetings from now on.
You could just say that 95% is my prior for P(OnTime|Reprimanded), but I am not sure people think this way; “prior has been updated” seems more appropriate (when the condition is history).
Just call it your “current belief”.