This is sort of how I was expecting The Public to react to the release of ChatGPT, and then it didn’t, and instead actually appeared to be paying some attention and at least sort of understand that this was a big deal. So I went and updated my model of The Public on this to be more optimistic. And now The Public is reacting to the agents like this, and I feel blindsided in the opposite direction. I guess my problems with predicting The Public go pretty deep and can’t be fixed just by adjusting some global first moment variable.
This is sort of how I was expecting The Public to react to the release of ChatGPT, and then it didn’t, and instead actually appeared to be paying some attention and at least sort of understand that this was a big deal. So I went and updated my model of The Public on this to be more optimistic. And now The Public is reacting to the agents like this, and I feel blindsided in the opposite direction. I guess my problems with predicting The Public go pretty deep and can’t be fixed just by adjusting some global first moment variable.