Yeah, this has been probably the single biggest update I’ve made over the past couple of years, and yeah the trendline of training compute increasing is basically my first-pass guess on why METR’s trend has been as stable as it is.
And yeah, the plot on here basically validates the story where training compute is by far the most important determinant of AI progress, with everything else like algorithms/data contributing a massively smaller share of improvements.
Yeah, this has been probably the single biggest update I’ve made over the past couple of years, and yeah the trendline of training compute increasing is basically my first-pass guess on why METR’s trend has been as stable as it is.
And yeah, the plot on here basically validates the story where training compute is by far the most important determinant of AI progress, with everything else like algorithms/data contributing a massively smaller share of improvements.