Russia falls under the skewed case as I guess does everything where probabilities are close to 1. I disagree with your analysis of the policeman example (“killing a policeman is a bad idea” does not explain the reasons why killing a policeman is a bad idea, but rather is explained by them).
That said, I suspect my thinking in some places confuses predictions and decisions and I’m strongly considering depublishing. Damnit.
Russia falls under the skewed case as I guess does everything where probabilities are close to 1. I disagree with your analysis of the policeman example (“killing a policeman is a bad idea” does not explain the reasons why killing a policeman is a bad idea, but rather is explained by them).
That said, I suspect my thinking in some places confuses predictions and decisions and I’m strongly considering depublishing. Damnit.