I actually don’t quite agree (this is the first time I found something new to criticize on one of the sequence posts).
To me, it seems like humility as discussed here is inherently a distortion, that when applied, shifts a conclusion in some way. The reason why it can be a good thing is simply that, if a conclusion is flawed, it can shift it into a better place, sort of a counter-measure to existing biases. it is as if I do a bunch of physical measurements and realize that the value I observe is usually a bit too small, so I just add a certain value to my number every time, hoping to move it closer to the correct one.
However, once I fix my measurement tools, that distortion then becomes negative. Similarly, once I actually get my rationality correct, humility will become negative. In this case, there also seems to be a general tool to get your conclusion fixed, which is to use the outside view rather than the inside view. Applying that to the engineer example:
What about the engineer who humbly designs fail-safe mechanisms into machinery, even though he’s damn sure the machinery won’t fail? This seems like a good kind of humility to me.
If the engineer used the outside view, he should know that humans are fallible and already conclude that he should spend an appropriate amount of time on fail-safe mechanics. If he then applied humility on top of it, thus downplaying his efforts despite having used the outside-view, it should lead him to worry/work on it more than necessary.
Of course, you could reason that in my example, applying the outside view is itself a form of applying humility. My point is simply that even proper humility doesn’t seem to cover any new ground. It’s not “part of rationality,” so to speak. It’s simply a useful tool, practically speaking, to apply when you haven’t conquered your biases yet. In that sense, I would argue that, ultimately, the correct way to use humility is not at all / automatically without doing anything.
I actually don’t quite agree (this is the first time I found something new to criticize on one of the sequence posts).
To me, it seems like humility as discussed here is inherently a distortion, that when applied, shifts a conclusion in some way. The reason why it can be a good thing is simply that, if a conclusion is flawed, it can shift it into a better place, sort of a counter-measure to existing biases. it is as if I do a bunch of physical measurements and realize that the value I observe is usually a bit too small, so I just add a certain value to my number every time, hoping to move it closer to the correct one.
However, once I fix my measurement tools, that distortion then becomes negative. Similarly, once I actually get my rationality correct, humility will become negative. In this case, there also seems to be a general tool to get your conclusion fixed, which is to use the outside view rather than the inside view. Applying that to the engineer example:
If the engineer used the outside view, he should know that humans are fallible and already conclude that he should spend an appropriate amount of time on fail-safe mechanics. If he then applied humility on top of it, thus downplaying his efforts despite having used the outside-view, it should lead him to worry/work on it more than necessary.
Of course, you could reason that in my example, applying the outside view is itself a form of applying humility. My point is simply that even proper humility doesn’t seem to cover any new ground. It’s not “part of rationality,” so to speak. It’s simply a useful tool, practically speaking, to apply when you haven’t conquered your biases yet. In that sense, I would argue that, ultimately, the correct way to use humility is not at all / automatically without doing anything.