Did you just link to the change in the housing market over the past year?
There is a multi-year graph of real estate prices on that web page, if you click the “Max” button you will get a plot of prices from August 2004 till today.
Your general argument seems to deny the usefulness of hedging
No, my general argument denies the usefulness of forecasts which don’t provide time estimates other than “at some point in the future”.
Let me offer you three more examples of such forecasts:
The website does work when I enable cookies, and it says he sold his apartment for much more than the median price. I think it also supports the claim that after buying a house, he had a profit left of roughly 10 percent of that house’s value (the amount of equity he supposedly said he wouldn’t mind losing post-purchase).
Your general argument seems to misrepresent Taleb. Again, we have here a case of someone doing pretty well by focusing on the predictions you can make. (His profit was likely sub-optimal, but that sounds like an example of a prediction you can’t make.) And hedging can indeed protect you against the events you keep weirdly suggesting are useless to think about.
There is a multi-year graph of real estate prices on that web page, if you click the “Max” button you will get a plot of prices from August 2004 till today.
No, my general argument denies the usefulness of forecasts which don’t provide time estimates other than “at some point in the future”.
Let me offer you three more examples of such forecasts:
The stock market will go up 20%
The stock market will go down 20%
The stock market will stay flat for a while
The website does work when I enable cookies, and it says he sold his apartment for much more than the median price. I think it also supports the claim that after buying a house, he had a profit left of roughly 10 percent of that house’s value (the amount of equity he supposedly said he wouldn’t mind losing post-purchase).
Your general argument seems to misrepresent Taleb. Again, we have here a case of someone doing pretty well by focusing on the predictions you can make. (His profit was likely sub-optimal, but that sounds like an example of a prediction you can’t make.) And hedging can indeed protect you against the events you keep weirdly suggesting are useless to think about.
If I may point you to the first paragraph of this post..?
I don’t believe I said anything at all about what’s useful or useless to think about.