I agree actually. I think the three most likely branches of the future are:
a) a strong and well-enforced international treaty between all major powers which no country can opt out of, that successfully controls AI development and deployment.
b) a race-to-the-bottom of arms races, and first strikes, and increasing relative breakdowns in state monopoly on force as AI grants novel uncontrolled weapons tech to smaller groups (e.g. terrorist orgs).
c) (least likely, but still possible) a sudden jump in power of AI, which allows the controlling entity to seize power of the entire world in such a short time that state actors cannot react or stop them.
I agree actually. I think the three most likely branches of the future are:
a) a strong and well-enforced international treaty between all major powers which no country can opt out of, that successfully controls AI development and deployment.
b) a race-to-the-bottom of arms races, and first strikes, and increasing relative breakdowns in state monopoly on force as AI grants novel uncontrolled weapons tech to smaller groups (e.g. terrorist orgs).
c) (least likely, but still possible) a sudden jump in power of AI, which allows the controlling entity to seize power of the entire world in such a short time that state actors cannot react or stop them.