Yeah, I had much the same problem. And since allegedly each person was randomly labelled either “vegetarian” or “omnivore”, clearly that indicates that we’re failing to tell which is which. I made some (insufficient) attempt to adjust my probability estimates downward a little (effectively, updating on the knowledge that randomized answers usually look credible to me, so that my naive credibility judgements must be overgenerous), so that almost all my estimates were 40%-60%.
I fear that this one (at least with the sample of contestants we’ve got—LW posters are an intelligent lot) is just too difficult.
I am prepared to be embarrassed if it turns out that some people were able to identify fakers much better than chance...
All felt realistic to me. With different degrees of believability, but none scored below 50% in my radar.
Yeah, I had much the same problem. And since allegedly each person was randomly labelled either “vegetarian” or “omnivore”, clearly that indicates that we’re failing to tell which is which. I made some (insufficient) attempt to adjust my probability estimates downward a little (effectively, updating on the knowledge that randomized answers usually look credible to me, so that my naive credibility judgements must be overgenerous), so that almost all my estimates were 40%-60%.
I fear that this one (at least with the sample of contestants we’ve got—LW posters are an intelligent lot) is just too difficult.
I am prepared to be embarrassed if it turns out that some people were able to identify fakers much better than chance...