Of course the probability of life arising—once in the whole universe—is high—very close to 1, given that we are very sure we in fact exist.
Don’t think this works. For all we know, the vast majority of possible universes are entirely dead, and only our tiny backwater of configuration space happened upon the right low-probability event. The probability of life existing given that we’re in a configuration with life in it is of course 1, but we can’t use that to derive a high probability for abiogenesis without independent data points, which we don’t have.
(This is unlikely to actually be the case, of course—unicelluluar life appeared so early in our planet’s history that we can’t pinpoint it with stratigraphic methods, which is unlikely if abiogenesis were the hard part. But we’re talking unlikely, not impossible or nearly impossible.)
Don’t think this works. For all we know, the vast majority of possible universes are entirely dead, and only our tiny backwater of configuration space happened upon the right low-probability event. The probability of life existing given that we’re in a configuration with life in it is of course 1, but we can’t use that to derive a high probability for abiogenesis without independent data points, which we don’t have.
(This is unlikely to actually be the case, of course—unicelluluar life appeared so early in our planet’s history that we can’t pinpoint it with stratigraphic methods, which is unlikely if abiogenesis were the hard part. But we’re talking unlikely, not impossible or nearly impossible.)