Thanks!, I am planing on writing a few more in this vein, currently I have some rough drafts of:
30% Done, How to callibrate normal predictions
defence of my calibration scheme, and an explanation of how metaculus does.
10% Done, How to make overdispersed predictions
like this one for the logistic and t distribution.
70% Done, How to calibrate binary predictions
like this one + but gives a posterior over the callibration by doing an logistic regression with your predictions as “x” and outcome as “y”
I can’t promise they will be as good as this one, but if they are not terrible then I would like them to be turned into a sequence :), how do I do this?
Curated. Predictions are the bread and butter of rationality, so I love this post advising on how to systematically do them better.
Thanks!, I am planing on writing a few more in this vein, currently I have some rough drafts of:
30% Done, How to callibrate normal predictions
defence of my calibration scheme, and an explanation of how metaculus does.
10% Done, How to make overdispersed predictions
like this one for the logistic and t distribution.
70% Done, How to calibrate binary predictions
like this one + but gives a posterior over the callibration by doing an logistic regression with your predictions as “x” and outcome as “y”
I can’t promise they will be as good as this one, but if they are not terrible then I would like them to be turned into a sequence :), how do I do this?