Overall great post: by retrospectively evaluating your prior predictions (documented so as to avoid one’s tendency to ‘nudge’ your memories based on actual events which transpired) using a ‘two valued’ Normal distribution (guess and ‘distance’ from guess as confidence interval), rather than a ‘single-valued’ bernoulli/binary distribution (yes/no on guess-actual over/under), one is able to glean more information and therefore more efficiently improve future predictions.
That opening statement, while good and useful, does come off a little ‘non sequitur’-ish. I urge to find a more impactful opening statement (but don’t ahve a recommendation, other than some simplification resulting from what I said above).
Overall great post: by retrospectively evaluating your prior predictions (documented so as to avoid one’s tendency to ‘nudge’ your memories based on actual events which transpired) using a ‘two valued’ Normal distribution (guess and ‘distance’ from guess as confidence interval), rather than a ‘single-valued’ bernoulli/binary distribution (yes/no on guess-actual over/under), one is able to glean more information and therefore more efficiently improve future predictions.
That opening statement, while good and useful, does come off a little ‘non sequitur’-ish. I urge to find a more impactful opening statement (but don’t ahve a recommendation, other than some simplification resulting from what I said above).
My original opening statement got trashed for being to self congratulatory, so the current one is a hot fix :), So I agree with you!