Ben, actually as soon as I posted I realized that I had contradicted my argument against the dust theory: in other words, according to this, there would be a reason that we seem to have a continuous conscious experience passing through time, but there would be no reason for us not to see strange events like cars turning into elephants and so on, as long as it did not kill us. And since there would be vastly more such possibilities than ordinary possibilities, we could expect such things with a high degree of certainty, even in the next ten seconds.
So actually it turns out that Eliezer is probably right about causality.
Ben, actually as soon as I posted I realized that I had contradicted my argument against the dust theory: in other words, according to this, there would be a reason that we seem to have a continuous conscious experience passing through time, but there would be no reason for us not to see strange events like cars turning into elephants and so on, as long as it did not kill us. And since there would be vastly more such possibilities than ordinary possibilities, we could expect such things with a high degree of certainty, even in the next ten seconds.
So actually it turns out that Eliezer is probably right about causality.