Can you point me to an example of something surprising that’s predicted by this interpretation?
No. This prompts a tangential observation: I can’t give any examples of anything surprising that’s predicted by any belief that is coherently integrated into my mental model (ie. believed and understood). Things that occur exactly how I expect them to occur tend not to be surprising.
What I can do is point to an intuition that you have which I share and additional consider to be a related insight into trends in human behaviour:
I’m a little confused, though, because for many people they’re very public about how they voted anyway (it seems unlikely they’re lying)
There is something about you that makes it seem to you that they are unlikely to be lying. In addition, there is something about most humans that means you are likely to be right. There is a clear distinct difference in the payoff structure for the anonymous action and the unrelated verbal signalling game but we both expect humans to behave in part as though there isn’t.
, so it is effectively public, no?
Wedrifid_2010 could perhaps have appended the following to the comment you quoted: “in fact, human status-seeking behavioural heuristics are so bad at accounting for anonymous ballots that it seems to some observers that anonymous ballots are effectively public”.
No. This prompts a tangential observation: I can’t give any examples of anything surprising that’s predicted by any belief that is coherently integrated into my mental model (ie. believed and understood). Things that occur exactly how I expect them to occur tend not to be surprising.
What I can do is point to an intuition that you have which I share and additional consider to be a related insight into trends in human behaviour:
There is something about you that makes it seem to you that they are unlikely to be lying. In addition, there is something about most humans that means you are likely to be right. There is a clear distinct difference in the payoff structure for the anonymous action and the unrelated verbal signalling game but we both expect humans to behave in part as though there isn’t.
Wedrifid_2010 could perhaps have appended the following to the comment you quoted: “in fact, human status-seeking behavioural heuristics are so bad at accounting for anonymous ballots that it seems to some observers that anonymous ballots are effectively public”.