and AI will be better than humans at >95% of current intellectual labor by the end of 2029.
My biggest question mark on this would be medical diagnosis, which I would classify as intellectual labor. Not because I don’t think AI could be capable of medical diagnosis (heck, I think GPT-5 is probably better than most GPs at most tasks now), but because a lack of sufficient training data combined with a heavy resistance to its use might simply make it hard to reach or properly measure this goal.
My biggest question mark on this would be medical diagnosis, which I would classify as intellectual labor. Not because I don’t think AI could be capable of medical diagnosis (heck, I think GPT-5 is probably better than most GPs at most tasks now), but because a lack of sufficient training data combined with a heavy resistance to its use might simply make it hard to reach or properly measure this goal.