This is one of those posts that crystallizes a thing well enough that you want to remember it and link to it as shorthand. Though I do think most of the top-tier rationalists already understood this concept prior to 2019, and were applying it, without necessarily having a good name or crystallization. This seems like a more accessible, easier-to-connect and slightly more general version of the concept of conservation of expected evidence.
This is one of those posts that crystallizes a thing well enough that you want to remember it and link to it as shorthand. Though I do think most of the top-tier rationalists already understood this concept prior to 2019, and were applying it, without necessarily having a good name or crystallization. This seems like a more accessible, easier-to-connect and slightly more general version of the concept of conservation of expected evidence.