The planning fallacy for garage projects is an interesting problem, because it doesn’t lend itself immediately to a reference class unless you have done a lot of projects before.
Still, next time you want to tackle a garage invention that you can just predict it will take as long as this one. It will be interesting to see how the difference between projects compares to the planning fallacy impact on a single project; in very big projects, the size of the project completely dominates any considerations of field or technology.
Come to think of it, does anyone know if there is a maker community somewhere that records its budgets and timelines? Maybe that could be used as a reference class for garage projects.
The planning fallacy for garage projects is an interesting problem, because it doesn’t lend itself immediately to a reference class unless you have done a lot of projects before.
Still, next time you want to tackle a garage invention that you can just predict it will take as long as this one. It will be interesting to see how the difference between projects compares to the planning fallacy impact on a single project; in very big projects, the size of the project completely dominates any considerations of field or technology.
Come to think of it, does anyone know if there is a maker community somewhere that records its budgets and timelines? Maybe that could be used as a reference class for garage projects.