I agree with this, but I think I’m making a somewhat different point.
An extinction event tomorrow would create significant certainty, in the sense that it determines the future outcome. But its value is still highly uncertain, because the sign of the curtained future is unknown. A bajillion years is a long time, and I don’t see any reason to presume that a bajillion years of increasing technological power and divergence from the 21st century human experience will be positive on net. I hope it is, but I don’t think my hope resolves the sign uncertainty.
I agree with this, but I think I’m making a somewhat different point.
An extinction event tomorrow would create significant certainty, in the sense that it determines the future outcome. But its value is still highly uncertain, because the sign of the curtained future is unknown. A bajillion years is a long time, and I don’t see any reason to presume that a bajillion years of increasing technological power and divergence from the 21st century human experience will be positive on net. I hope it is, but I don’t think my hope resolves the sign uncertainty.