I expect that Scott, Abram or some others have already pointed this out
Yep: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3hs6MniiEssfL8rPz/judgements-merging-prediction-and-evidence
Yep: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3hs6MniiEssfL8rPz/judgements-merging-prediction-and-evidence