If someone is able to consistently predict the market, they don’t need the sort of investors they could get from mass-mailing people. The only conceivable reason they would be sending stuff to random strangers (and not like, hedge funds, banks, or billionaires) is if they’re trying to scam you.
Maybe if you looked at just the predictions, and didn’t consider the context in which someone would be sending accurate market predictions to you, then you could get tricked. In context though, there’s no plausible scenario where someone intelligent (superhuman) enough to make accurate stock picks consistently is marketing their services through the mail. They would have to be both smart enough to succeed, and dumb enough to not have access to better sources of funding, and dumb enough to not realize that their 10% weekly return strategy invalidates the need for investment in the first place. This sort of person is incompatible with the real world—intelligence is general enough.
It would be like if someone claiming to be Donald Trump starting texting you to tell you about his next Tariff. Even if your Trump got it right 6 times in a row, it’s not plausible he would be texting a random citizen his intentions. Maybe it warrants further attention since it is definitely some sort of signal, but it doesn’t warrant belief.
If someone is able to consistently predict the market, they don’t need the sort of investors they could get from mass-mailing people. The only conceivable reason they would be sending stuff to random strangers (and not like, hedge funds, banks, or billionaires) is if they’re trying to scam you.
Maybe if you looked at just the predictions, and didn’t consider the context in which someone would be sending accurate market predictions to you, then you could get tricked. In context though, there’s no plausible scenario where someone intelligent (superhuman) enough to make accurate stock picks consistently is marketing their services through the mail. They would have to be both smart enough to succeed, and dumb enough to not have access to better sources of funding, and dumb enough to not realize that their 10% weekly return strategy invalidates the need for investment in the first place. This sort of person is incompatible with the real world—intelligence is general enough.
It would be like if someone claiming to be Donald Trump starting texting you to tell you about his next Tariff. Even if your Trump got it right 6 times in a row, it’s not plausible he would be texting a random citizen his intentions. Maybe it warrants further attention since it is definitely some sort of signal, but it doesn’t warrant belief.