It’s a bit unfortunate that these articles are so old; or rather that people aren’t as active presently. I’d have enjoyed some discussion on a few thoughts. Take for instance #5, I shall paste it for convenience:
If the last 11 egg-shaped objects drawn have been blue, and the last 8 cubes drawn have been red, it is a matter of induction to say this rule will hold in the future. But if you call the blue eggs “bleggs” and the red cubes “rubes”, you may reach into the barrel, feel an egg shape, and think “Oh, a blegg.”
It struck me that this is very deeply embedded in us, or at least in me. I read this and noticed that my thought was along the lines of “yes, how silly, it could be a non-colored egg.” What’s wrong with this? What’s felt is an egg shape, not an egg. Might as well be something else entirely.
So how deep does this one go; and how deep should we unravel it? I guess “all the way down” is the only viable answer. I can assign a high probability that it is an egg, I simply shouldn’t conclude anything just yet. When is it safe to conclude something? I take it the only accurate answer would be “never.” So we end up with something that I believe most of us holds as true already: Nothing is certain.
It is of course a rather subtle distinction going from ‘certain’ to ‘least uncertain under currently assessed information’. Whenever I speak about physics or other theoretical subjects, I’m always in the mindset that what I’m discussing is on the basis of “as is currently understood,” so in that area it feels rather natural. I suppose it’s just a bit startling to find that the chocolate I just ate is only chocolate as a best candidate rather than as a true description of reality; that biases can be found in such “personal” places.
It’s a bit unfortunate that these articles are so old; or rather that people aren’t as active presently. I’d have enjoyed some discussion on a few thoughts. Take for instance #5, I shall paste it for convenience:
It struck me that this is very deeply embedded in us, or at least in me. I read this and noticed that my thought was along the lines of “yes, how silly, it could be a non-colored egg.” What’s wrong with this? What’s felt is an egg shape, not an egg. Might as well be something else entirely.
So how deep does this one go; and how deep should we unravel it? I guess “all the way down” is the only viable answer. I can assign a high probability that it is an egg, I simply shouldn’t conclude anything just yet. When is it safe to conclude something? I take it the only accurate answer would be “never.” So we end up with something that I believe most of us holds as true already: Nothing is certain.
It is of course a rather subtle distinction going from ‘certain’ to ‘least uncertain under currently assessed information’. Whenever I speak about physics or other theoretical subjects, I’m always in the mindset that what I’m discussing is on the basis of “as is currently understood,” so in that area it feels rather natural. I suppose it’s just a bit startling to find that the chocolate I just ate is only chocolate as a best candidate rather than as a true description of reality; that biases can be found in such “personal” places.