This employee has 100 million dollars, approximately 10,000x fewer resources than the hedge fund. Even if the employee engaged in unethical business practices to achieve a 2x higher yearly growth rate than their former employer, it would take 13 years for them to have a similar amount of capital.
I think it’s worth being explicit here about whether increases in resources under control are due to appreciation of existing capital or allocation of new capital.
If you’re talking about appreciation, then if the firm earns 5% returns on average and the rogue employee earns 10% then the time for their resources to be equal would be ln(10000)/ln(1.05) = 189 years, not 13.
If you’re instead talking about capital allocation then swings much faster than yearly doublings are very easy to imagine—for a non-AGI example see Blackrock’s assets under management.
In general I think you could make the argument stronger by looking empirically at the dynamics by which the large passive investing funds acquired multiple trillions in managed assets with (as I understand it) relatively small pricing edges and no strategic edge, and extrapolating from there.
I think it’s worth being explicit here about whether increases in resources under control are due to appreciation of existing capital or allocation of new capital.
If you’re talking about appreciation, then if the firm earns 5% returns on average and the rogue employee earns 10% then the time for their resources to be equal would be ln(10000)/ln(1.05) = 189 years, not 13.
If you’re instead talking about capital allocation then swings much faster than yearly doublings are very easy to imagine—for a non-AGI example see Blackrock’s assets under management.
In general I think you could make the argument stronger by looking empirically at the dynamics by which the large passive investing funds acquired multiple trillions in managed assets with (as I understand it) relatively small pricing edges and no strategic edge, and extrapolating from there.