I think you missed: “Maybe we can reduce these propensities faster than the increasing optimisation power brings them out”
Regarding: “Unless you’re posing a non-smooth model”
Why would the model be smooth when the we’re making all kinds of changes to how the models are trained and how we elicit them? As an analogy, even if I was bullish on Nvidea stock prices over the long term, it doesn’t mean that even a major crash would necessarily falsify my prediction as it could still recover.
My main disagreement is that I feel your certainty outstrips the strength of your arguments.
I think you missed: “Maybe we can reduce these propensities faster than the increasing optimisation power brings them out”
Regarding: “Unless you’re posing a non-smooth model”
Why would the model be smooth when the we’re making all kinds of changes to how the models are trained and how we elicit them? As an analogy, even if I was bullish on Nvidea stock prices over the long term, it doesn’t mean that even a major crash would necessarily falsify my prediction as it could still recover.
My main disagreement is that I feel your certainty outstrips the strength of your arguments.