Yep, I think my estimates were too low based on these considerations and I’ve updated up accordingly. I updated down on your argument that maybe r decreases linearly as you approach optimal efficiency. (I think it probably doesn’t decrease linearly and instead drops faster towards the end based partially on thinking a bit about the dynamics and drawing on the example of what we’ve seen in semi-conductor improvement over time, but I’m not that confident.) Maybe I’m now at like 60% software-only is feasible given these arguments.
Yep, I think my estimates were too low based on these considerations and I’ve updated up accordingly. I updated down on your argument that maybe r decreases linearly as you approach optimal efficiency. (I think it probably doesn’t decrease linearly and instead drops faster towards the end based partially on thinking a bit about the dynamics and drawing on the example of what we’ve seen in semi-conductor improvement over time, but I’m not that confident.) Maybe I’m now at like 60% software-only is feasible given these arguments.