if I thought that we were conceptually / technically far from AIs that can automate the process of scientific discovery, I would much less expect a FOOM in the next 10 ye
Ok great. Can you clarify why you think this? Previously you wrote, in response to “What makes you think we’re close?”:
That the AI agents are already able to do, or are a few METR doublings from being able to do, almost all of the mental work that humans do, weighted by “time spent doing that work.”
Can you clarify / expand? What makes you think the METR results imply we’re close to having algorithmic ideas sufficient to automate scientific discovery?
Ok great. Can you clarify why you think this? Previously you wrote, in response to “What makes you think we’re close?”:
Can you clarify / expand? What makes you think the METR results imply we’re close to having algorithmic ideas sufficient to automate scientific discovery?