Based on some guesses and some poll questions, my sense is that capabilities researchers would operate about 2.5x slower if they had 10x less compute (after adaptation)
Can you say roughly who the people surveyed were? (And if this was their raw guess or if you’ve modified it.)
I saw some polls from Daniel previously where I wasn’t sold that they were surveying people working on the most important capability improvements, so wondering if these are better.
Also, somewhat minor, but: I’m slightly concerned that surveys will overweight areas where labor is more useful relative to compute (because those areas should have disproportionately many humans working on them) and therefore be somewhat biased in the direction of labor being important.
Can you say roughly who the people surveyed were? (And if this was their raw guess or if you’ve modified it.)
I saw some polls from Daniel previously where I wasn’t sold that they were surveying people working on the most important capability improvements, so wondering if these are better.
Also, somewhat minor, but: I’m slightly concerned that surveys will overweight areas where labor is more useful relative to compute (because those areas should have disproportionately many humans working on them) and therefore be somewhat biased in the direction of labor being important.
I’m citing the polls from Daniel + what I’ve heard from random people + my guesses.