A factor that I don’t think people are really taking into account is: what happens if this situation goes hostile?
Having an ASI and x amount of compute for inference plus y amount of currently existing autonomous weapons platforms (e.g. drones)…
If your competitor has the same ASI, but 10x the compute but 0.2x the drones… And you get in a fight… Who wins?
What about 0.2x the compute and 10x the drones?
The funny thing about AI brinkmanship versus nuclear brinkmanship is that AI doesn’t drain your economic resources, it accelerates your gains. A nuclear stockpile costs you in maintenance. An AI and compute ‘stockpile’ makes you more money and more tech (including better AI and compute). Thus, there is a lot more incentive to race harder on AI than on nuclear.
If I were in the defense dept of a world power right now, I’d be looking for ways to make money from civilian uses of drones… Maybe underwriting drone deliveries for mail. That gives you an excuse to build drones and drone factories while whistling innocently.
A factor that I don’t think people are really taking into account is: what happens if this situation goes hostile?
Having an ASI and x amount of compute for inference plus y amount of currently existing autonomous weapons platforms (e.g. drones)… If your competitor has the same ASI, but 10x the compute but 0.2x the drones… And you get in a fight… Who wins? What about 0.2x the compute and 10x the drones?
The funny thing about AI brinkmanship versus nuclear brinkmanship is that AI doesn’t drain your economic resources, it accelerates your gains. A nuclear stockpile costs you in maintenance. An AI and compute ‘stockpile’ makes you more money and more tech (including better AI and compute). Thus, there is a lot more incentive to race harder on AI than on nuclear.
If I were in the defense dept of a world power right now, I’d be looking for ways to make money from civilian uses of drones… Maybe underwriting drone deliveries for mail. That gives you an excuse to build drones and drone factories while whistling innocently.
I’m not the only one thinking along these lines… https://x.com/8teAPi/status/1885340234352910723