The idea that there are no more good ideas and it’s all just scaling from here
Fwiw, this is not how I understand his take. I think he’s saying AI progress will be bottlenecked by compute (and human expert data), which I interpret to mean that the elasticity of substitution between compute and intelligence isn’t high enough. In fact, I think this his view includes compute to run experiments to do AI research.
Right but it seems that increased intelligence will reduce that bottleneck by making the limited amount of compute for experiments go farther. How much farther is an open question.
Fwiw, this is not how I understand his take. I think he’s saying AI progress will be bottlenecked by compute (and human expert data), which I interpret to mean that the elasticity of substitution between compute and intelligence isn’t high enough. In fact, I think this his view includes compute to run experiments to do AI research.
Right but it seems that increased intelligence will reduce that bottleneck by making the limited amount of compute for experiments go farther. How much farther is an open question.
I agree with that!