I don’t think (2) is a crux (as discussed in person). I expect that if takeover-capable AI takes a while (e.g. it happens in 2040), then we will have a long winter where economic value from AI doesn’t increase that fast followed a period of faster progress around 2040. If progress is relatively stable accross this entire period, then we’ll have enough time to scale up fabs. Even if progress isn’t stable, we could see enough total value from AI in the slower growth period to scale up to scale up fabs by 10x, but this would require >>$1 trillion of economic value per year I think (which IMO seems not that likely to come far before takeover-capable AI due to views about economic returns to AI and returns to scaling up compute).
I don’t think (2) is a crux (as discussed in person). I expect that if takeover-capable AI takes a while (e.g. it happens in 2040), then we will have a long winter where economic value from AI doesn’t increase that fast followed a period of faster progress around 2040. If progress is relatively stable accross this entire period, then we’ll have enough time to scale up fabs. Even if progress isn’t stable, we could see enough total value from AI in the slower growth period to scale up to scale up fabs by 10x, but this would require >>$1 trillion of economic value per year I think (which IMO seems not that likely to come far before takeover-capable AI due to views about economic returns to AI and returns to scaling up compute).