Example 2: Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. He ran a drug empire while being imprisoned. Tell this to anyone who still believes that “boxing” a superintelligent AI is a good idea.
I think the relevant quote is: “While he was in prison, Guzmán’s drug empire and cartel continued to operate unabated, run by his brother, Arturo Guzmán Loera, known as El Pollo, with Guzmán himself still considered a major international drug trafficker by Mexico and the U.S. even while he was behind bars. Associates brought him suitcases of cash to bribe prison workers and allow the drug lord to maintain his opulent lifestyle even in prison, with prison guards acting like his servants”
This seems to indicate less “running things” than what I initially thought this post was saying. It’s impressive that the drug empire stayed loyal to him even while he was in prison, though.
Example 5: Chris Voss, an FBI negotiator. This is a much less well-known example, I learned it from o3, actually. Chris Voss has convinced two armed bank robbersto surrender (this isn’t the only example in his career, of course) while only using a phone, no face-to-face interactions, so no opportunities to read facial expressions.
My (pretty uninformed) impression is that it’s often rational for US hostage takers to surrender without violence, if they’re fully surrounded, because the US police has a policy of not allowing them to trade hostages for escape, and violence will risk their own death and longer sentences. (Though maybe it’s best to first negotiate for a reduced sentence?) If that’s true, this is probably an example of someone convincing some pretty scary and unpredictable individuals to do the thing that’s in their best self-interest, despite starting out in an adversarial situation, and while only talking over the phone. Impressive, to be sure, but it wouldn’t feel very surprising that we have recorded examples of this even if persuasion ability plateaus pretty hard at some point.
I think the relevant quote is: “While he was in prison, Guzmán’s drug empire and cartel continued to operate unabated, run by his brother, Arturo Guzmán Loera, known as El Pollo, with Guzmán himself still considered a major international drug trafficker by Mexico and the U.S. even while he was behind bars. Associates brought him suitcases of cash to bribe prison workers and allow the drug lord to maintain his opulent lifestyle even in prison, with prison guards acting like his servants”
This seems to indicate less “running things” than what I initially thought this post was saying. It’s impressive that the drug empire stayed loyal to him even while he was in prison, though.
My (pretty uninformed) impression is that it’s often rational for US hostage takers to surrender without violence, if they’re fully surrounded, because the US police has a policy of not allowing them to trade hostages for escape, and violence will risk their own death and longer sentences. (Though maybe it’s best to first negotiate for a reduced sentence?) If that’s true, this is probably an example of someone convincing some pretty scary and unpredictable individuals to do the thing that’s in their best self-interest, despite starting out in an adversarial situation, and while only talking over the phone. Impressive, to be sure, but it wouldn’t feel very surprising that we have recorded examples of this even if persuasion ability plateaus pretty hard at some point.