I tend to value a longer timeline more than a lot of other people do. I guess I see EA and AI Safety setting up powerful idea machines that get more powerful when they are given more time to gear up. A lot more resources have been invested into EA field-building recently, but we need time for these investments to pay off. At EA London this year, I gained a sense that AI Safety movement building is only now becoming its own thing; and of course it’ll take time to iterate to get it right, then time for people to pass through the programs, then time for them to have a career.
I suspect the kind of argument that we need more capabilities to make progress might have been stronger earlier in the game, but now that we already have powerful language models, there’s a lot that we can do without needing AI to advance any further.
I tend to value a longer timeline more than a lot of other people do. I guess I see EA and AI Safety setting up powerful idea machines that get more powerful when they are given more time to gear up. A lot more resources have been invested into EA field-building recently, but we need time for these investments to pay off. At EA London this year, I gained a sense that AI Safety movement building is only now becoming its own thing; and of course it’ll take time to iterate to get it right, then time for people to pass through the programs, then time for them to have a career.
I suspect the kind of argument that we need more capabilities to make progress might have been stronger earlier in the game, but now that we already have powerful language models, there’s a lot that we can do without needing AI to advance any further.