If you believe AGI is imminent, then of course you want to develop policies that will address the related problem. I do not think we should summarily dismiss the potential risks of AGI, and I do say explicitly that I am not arguing about the AGI timelines or probabilities here. What I do argue is that we should not base our belief in imminent AGI—and therefore policy choices—solely on the messaging from the AI industry players. And they, whether we like it or not, are now to great extent shaping the public discourse.
Which of these two approaches:
Sam Altman says AGI is coming > let’s focus all policy effort and resources on his scenarios of AGI, or
AGI is potentially coming > let’s review arguments and research from across the field to weigh the probabilities > let’s distribute policy effort and resources across short-, mid-, and long-term risks accordingly
do you think will bear better policy choices? Approach #2 may well conclude that AGI is extremely likely, but these conclusions will have a sounder and broader base.
If you believe AGI is imminent, then of course you want to develop policies that will address the related problem. I do not think we should summarily dismiss the potential risks of AGI, and I do say explicitly that I am not arguing about the AGI timelines or probabilities here. What I do argue is that we should not base our belief in imminent AGI—and therefore policy choices—solely on the messaging from the AI industry players. And they, whether we like it or not, are now to great extent shaping the public discourse.
Which of these two approaches:
Sam Altman says AGI is coming > let’s focus all policy effort and resources on his scenarios of AGI, or
AGI is potentially coming > let’s review arguments and research from across the field to weigh the probabilities > let’s distribute policy effort and resources across short-, mid-, and long-term risks accordingly
do you think will bear better policy choices? Approach #2 may well conclude that AGI is extremely likely, but these conclusions will have a sounder and broader base.