Wait, what? The sum of the net worth of those who consider themselves members of the rationalist community is MUCH greater due to crypto than it was before. What definition of “success” are you using which so devalues that outcome?
I’m mostly referring to the narrative from this post. There have been some successes, but those have mostly been due to a very small number of huge winners. And in the case of the biggest winner of all, Vitalik Buterin, he actually ended up joining the rationalist community AFTER he started Ethereum.
Do you really want default advice? I’d rather have correct advice, and I’d rather still have correct personal behavior, regardless of advice. “Correct”, in this case, means “best possible experienced outcome”, not “sounds good” or “best prediction at this point but still wrong”.
I probably wasn’t as clear as I could have been in the original post. What I mean by “default advice” is a set of actions people can take if they believe there is a decent chance AGI will be created in their lifetimes and want to prepare for it but are not willing to spend all the time to develop a detailed personal plan.
For example, if you believe the efficient market hypothesis, you can act on that belief by buying low-cost index funds. I’m thinking it would be useful to have a similar easy option for people who buy that we will likely see AGI in our lifetimes.
Why would the stock go up, as opposed to the employees in control just absconding with (or being absorbed into) the AGI and the stock becoming irrelevant? Or someone else learning from the success and turning it into an actual financial boon. Or any of a billion other sequences that would make it a dumb idea to pick a stock based on number of papers published in a narrow topic that may or may not correlate with AGI creation.
True, and this is why I said I am not particularly satisfied with my current strategy. I still think in the scenario where AGI has been created or is close to being created, Google’s stock price is likely to go up more than an index fund of all stocks on the market.
set of actions people can take if they believe there is a decent chance AGI will be created in their lifetimes and want to prepare for it but are not willing to spend all the time to develop a detailed personal plan.
I don’t think that’s how markets and finance works. The actions you can take if you’re not willing/able to get into the details of a personal plan are pretty much “follow the crowd”. Perhaps you can pick a crowd to follow, in the form of slightly-less-general indexes.
For example, if you believe the efficient market hypothesis, you can act on that belief by buying low-cost index funds.
No, no, no. Regardless of what you believe, if the EMH is true, you can’t do better than buying low-cost index funds. It’s only the case where you have TRUER beliefs than the market aggregate, in ways that you can predict the market shift that will happen when your belief becomes common, that you can invest better than the average. Without quite a bit of analysis and research, I don’t think you can predict whether Google shareholders benefit or lose from AGI development any better than the market.
I’m mostly referring to the narrative from this post. There have been some successes, but those have mostly been due to a very small number of huge winners. And in the case of the biggest winner of all, Vitalik Buterin, he actually ended up joining the rationalist community AFTER he started Ethereum.
I probably wasn’t as clear as I could have been in the original post. What I mean by “default advice” is a set of actions people can take if they believe there is a decent chance AGI will be created in their lifetimes and want to prepare for it but are not willing to spend all the time to develop a detailed personal plan.
For example, if you believe the efficient market hypothesis, you can act on that belief by buying low-cost index funds. I’m thinking it would be useful to have a similar easy option for people who buy that we will likely see AGI in our lifetimes.
True, and this is why I said I am not particularly satisfied with my current strategy. I still think in the scenario where AGI has been created or is close to being created, Google’s stock price is likely to go up more than an index fund of all stocks on the market.
I don’t think that’s how markets and finance works. The actions you can take if you’re not willing/able to get into the details of a personal plan are pretty much “follow the crowd”. Perhaps you can pick a crowd to follow, in the form of slightly-less-general indexes.
No, no, no. Regardless of what you believe, if the EMH is true, you can’t do better than buying low-cost index funds. It’s only the case where you have TRUER beliefs than the market aggregate, in ways that you can predict the market shift that will happen when your belief becomes common, that you can invest better than the average. Without quite a bit of analysis and research, I don’t think you can predict whether Google shareholders benefit or lose from AGI development any better than the market.