I agree that the world model is changing. I should have specified that what makes a counterfactual a specific type is that it conditions upon a change in the world state. Thus later, when I wrote, “The causal claim contains a counterfactual,” I could improve the clarity by pointing out that the causal claim contains a ‘world state variable’ which when altered creates a counterfactual world.
It is certainly more than a linguistic convention. When one applies the concept of causality to their experience and knowledge about the big bright glowing orb and to their knowledge and experience of heat, eventually the referents of the two terms “sun” and “heat” are shown to have necessary connection, such that in any stable, univocal use the terms there is a logical connection. I probably should have stuck to my draft version of the sun-heat paragraph, which, inspired by a section from Kant, was also significantly longer.
Yes, correlation is not causation, but when two things are correlated, there is either no relation or some relation. But when I make a conditional prediction, I assume that the antecedent and the consequent have some sort of causal connection either directly, or through a backdoor, or through colliders. Now I realize, conditional predictions don’t actually require the assumption that there is a link. Yet, I am going to assume people are trying to make meaningful speech acts, and this context, a conditional prediction implies that there is a correlation, that is in some perhaps unknown way indicative of causal forces.
You make sense to say that if Orion knows that he only knows K, then he actually knows more than K by virtue of knowing K at the limit. I disagree with this. He knows K only. He does not know that Perpetua knows the union of K and L. Nor does he know that Perpetua knows only K and L and no more. Nor does he know that K and L exist as a union. I think Perpetua should be able to identify that Orion knows K and only K, and create a path for him to learn K U L. But I am skeptical there is any way for Orion to figure out the path from his knowledge state of K to her knowledge state of K U L.
I agree that the world model is changing. I should have specified that what makes a counterfactual a specific type is that it conditions upon a change in the world state. Thus later, when I wrote, “The causal claim contains a counterfactual,” I could improve the clarity by pointing out that the causal claim contains a ‘world state variable’ which when altered creates a counterfactual world.
It is certainly more than a linguistic convention. When one applies the concept of causality to their experience and knowledge about the big bright glowing orb and to their knowledge and experience of heat, eventually the referents of the two terms “sun” and “heat” are shown to have necessary connection, such that in any stable, univocal use the terms there is a logical connection. I probably should have stuck to my draft version of the sun-heat paragraph, which, inspired by a section from Kant, was also significantly longer.
Yes, correlation is not causation, but when two things are correlated, there is either no relation or some relation. But when I make a conditional prediction, I assume that the antecedent and the consequent have some sort of causal connection either directly, or through a backdoor, or through colliders. Now I realize, conditional predictions don’t actually require the assumption that there is a link. Yet, I am going to assume people are trying to make meaningful speech acts, and this context, a conditional prediction implies that there is a correlation, that is in some perhaps unknown way indicative of causal forces.
You make sense to say that if Orion knows that he only knows K, then he actually knows more than K by virtue of knowing K at the limit. I disagree with this. He knows K only. He does not know that Perpetua knows the union of K and L. Nor does he know that Perpetua knows only K and L and no more. Nor does he know that K and L exist as a union. I think Perpetua should be able to identify that Orion knows K and only K, and create a path for him to learn K U L. But I am skeptical there is any way for Orion to figure out the path from his knowledge state of K to her knowledge state of K U L.