In my experience, very few organizations fire skilled workers on the basis of stochastic evidence, at least not in a way that essentially discredits them in a permanent manner.
Lots of finance works this way. If the portfolio you manage is down, it might have been luck. But if it’s down a lot more than the market, you’ll be out of a job. No-one needs an unlucky portfolio manager.
In my experience, very few organizations fire skilled workers on the basis of stochastic evidence, at least not in a way that essentially discredits them in a permanent manner.
Lots of finance works this way. If the portfolio you manage is down, it might have been luck. But if it’s down a lot more than the market, you’ll be out of a job. No-one needs an unlucky portfolio manager.
If you’re trying to use luck to predict the future, you’re a bad portfolio manager, regardless of the performance of your portfolio.