b) I believe it can happen exceptionally, but not all the time as the author claims
That sounds very different from “This story seems like a very exaggerated version of true events”. One is about frequency (how often do things in the author’s intended reference class occur?) while the other is about severity (how bad are the events that actually happened to the author?)
That sounds very different from “This story seems like a very exaggerated version of true events”. One is about frequency (how often do things in the author’s intended reference class occur?) while the other is about severity (how bad are the events that actually happened to the author?)