Expect things long-lived that make ooodles of spores since they have such low chances.
Possibly expect things that are flaky and can recover from near-catastrophic damage so they can skip the whole sporing process altogether—like moss and lichen—but less so than those since this has more of an interior.
Expect roots not to be the highest priority when starting a new plant from a spore since they don’t have a seed with its startup food, and roots don’t directly yield energy, while it’s possible to get water from the air.
If roots aren’t a high priority, expect a skin that can control water flow thoroughly, at least when young
If roots aren’t a high priority, expect it to be fairly tough—can’t recover from lots of surface damage until it’s older.
Or it could avoid the root issue by living on/under water.
1 - Clubmoss − 35%. If it can make spores that fast it could beat the clearing rate; also, the fungus will need time to get paid for the support work it did. If they have kids really quick, the fungus could be getting a bit of a raw deal. But I dunno.
2 - Quillwort − 50%. On the one hand, Alpine tends to be cooler , and also this means of reproduction would tend to send it downhill rather than up, but you said it lives on rubbly slopes, and being on a hill would let anything that breaks off get far enough not to be in the way. And it could advance up in sporing, and the ability to spore the same year would let it live in the summer and spore through the winter. Also, just because it benefits from being on a hill doesn’t mean it needs to be on a mountain.
3 - Asplenium − 75%. You practically threw this one at us with the hints. Still, Building exteriors are fairly inhospitable, so I’m not sure… Mortar cracks could harbor it though. Also, that picture almost looks like it’s on a building.
4 - Salvinia − 60%. If it has until late summer for peak competition, that’s plenty of time. The first few generations won’t saturate the place… or will they? I guess it depends on the starting population and the degree of room to grow. If you’re racing to cover a lake, you want to go early rather than go well. Also, more likely to mature quickly since it has ample water access. So, if given that it STILL takes until late summer for peak competition, that raises the chances that you get a lot of generations in.
Did you multiply your probabilities, or did you estimate only the last claims? That was an interesting and plausible analysis. What alternative hypotheses did you have in mind?
(Me? Throw anything? Nonono, wasn’t me...:)
It was so fuzzy—and more importantly, non-independent—I just gave a gut feeling at the end. This gut feeling basically amounted to, “supposing it turns out to be X/not-X, how stupid do I feel?” and taking the balance of those feelings. Basically, minimize regret since being right or wrong either way has the same impact..
Thank you. It is often how I feel IRL, when I need to, for example, compare two species. Maybe there’s a way to formulate it clearer, and maybe subject matter/inferential gaps will always make it fuzzy—dunno, I am mostly trying to unlearn how it was taught to us in uni.
(should we spoiler?)
General:
Expect things long-lived that make ooodles of spores since they have such low chances.
Possibly expect things that are flaky and can recover from near-catastrophic damage so they can skip the whole sporing process altogether—like moss and lichen—but less so than those since this has more of an interior.
Expect roots not to be the highest priority when starting a new plant from a spore since they don’t have a seed with its startup food, and roots don’t directly yield energy, while it’s possible to get water from the air.
If roots aren’t a high priority, expect a skin that can control water flow thoroughly, at least when young
If roots aren’t a high priority, expect it to be fairly tough—can’t recover from lots of surface damage until it’s older.
Or it could avoid the root issue by living on/under water.
1 - Clubmoss − 35%. If it can make spores that fast it could beat the clearing rate; also, the fungus will need time to get paid for the support work it did. If they have kids really quick, the fungus could be getting a bit of a raw deal. But I dunno.
2 - Quillwort − 50%. On the one hand, Alpine tends to be cooler , and also this means of reproduction would tend to send it downhill rather than up, but you said it lives on rubbly slopes, and being on a hill would let anything that breaks off get far enough not to be in the way. And it could advance up in sporing, and the ability to spore the same year would let it live in the summer and spore through the winter. Also, just because it benefits from being on a hill doesn’t mean it needs to be on a mountain.
3 - Asplenium − 75%. You practically threw this one at us with the hints. Still, Building exteriors are fairly inhospitable, so I’m not sure… Mortar cracks could harbor it though. Also, that picture almost looks like it’s on a building.
4 - Salvinia − 60%. If it has until late summer for peak competition, that’s plenty of time. The first few generations won’t saturate the place… or will they? I guess it depends on the starting population and the degree of room to grow. If you’re racing to cover a lake, you want to go early rather than go well. Also, more likely to mature quickly since it has ample water access. So, if given that it STILL takes until late summer for peak competition, that raises the chances that you get a lot of generations in.
Did you multiply your probabilities, or did you estimate only the last claims? That was an interesting and plausible analysis. What alternative hypotheses did you have in mind? (Me? Throw anything? Nonono, wasn’t me...:)
It was so fuzzy—and more importantly, non-independent—I just gave a gut feeling at the end. This gut feeling basically amounted to, “supposing it turns out to be X/not-X, how stupid do I feel?” and taking the balance of those feelings. Basically, minimize regret since being right or wrong either way has the same impact..
Thank you. It is often how I feel IRL, when I need to, for example, compare two species. Maybe there’s a way to formulate it clearer, and maybe subject matter/inferential gaps will always make it fuzzy—dunno, I am mostly trying to unlearn how it was taught to us in uni.