To be clear, I don’t think there is any trivial way to prove the hash released in 2024 corresponds to this potentially 2-year-later revised and modified version, unless @gwern himself confirms of course. My line of reasoning is purely speculation, since he released this with seemingly very little fanfare on gwernnet/twitter/substack before posting on LW and its fun to try and guess the hidden motivations.
Relatedly, since this is in fact, at its core, a very good sounding idea, and gwern has been somewhat prescient previously about pointing out the early signs of both pretrain-scaling->alexnet and test-time-compute-scaling->4chan, it does seem strange the grandfather comment was initially downvoted so heavily for considering the capability acceleration implications (which again ties into my motivational curiosity). Personally, I think a compute overhang is to be avoided, so I’m all for the open dissemination of ideas - but then again gwern does seem to like to play some fun 5d games from time to time.
To be clear, I don’t think there is any trivial way to prove the hash released in 2024 corresponds to this potentially 2-year-later revised and modified version, unless @gwern himself confirms of course. My line of reasoning is purely speculation, since he released this with seemingly very little fanfare on gwernnet/twitter/substack before posting on LW and its fun to try and guess the hidden motivations.
Relatedly, since this is in fact, at its core, a very good sounding idea, and gwern has been somewhat prescient previously about pointing out the early signs of both pretrain-scaling->alexnet and test-time-compute-scaling->4chan, it does seem strange the grandfather comment was initially downvoted so heavily for considering the capability acceleration implications (which again ties into my motivational curiosity). Personally, I think a compute overhang is to be avoided, so I’m all for the open dissemination of ideas - but then again gwern does seem to like to play some fun 5d games from time to time.