You say you are using the first-person perspective to answer the probability “I am the Original”, and focusing on yourself in the analysis. However, you keep bring up there are two copies. That “one is the original, the other is the clone.” So the probability “I am the Original” is 50%.
Do you realize that you are equating “I” with “a random one of the two” in this analysis? There is an underlying assumption of “I am a random sample” or “I am a typical observer” here.
For repeating the experiment, I am talking about being the Original in each iteration. You may come out as the Clone from the first experiment. You can still participate in a second experiment, after waking up from the second experiment, you may be the Original (or the Clone) of the second experiment. And no matter which one you are, you can take part in a third experiment. You can come out of the third experiment as the Orignal (or the Clone) of the third experiment. And so on. Keep doing this, and keep counting how many times you came out as the Orignal vs the Clone. What is the rationale that they will become roughly equal? I.E. as you repeat more experiments you will experience being the Original roughly half of the time. Again, the justification would be “I” am a random copy.
I am not saying the existence of other copies must be ignored. I am saying if you reason from the first-person perspective, imagine yourself waking up from the experiments, then it is primitively clear all other copies are not the “I” or “myself” questioned by self-locating probability. Because you are very used to take the god’s eye view and consider all copies together (and treating “I” as a random sample of all copies) I suggested to not pay attention to anyone else but imagine you as a participant, and focus on yourself. But evidently, this doesn’t work.
It is a tricky matter to communicate for sure. If this still seems convoluted maybe I shall use examples with solid numbers and bets to highlight the paradox of self-locating probability. Would you be interested in that?
Ok.
You say you are using the first-person perspective to answer the probability “I am the Original”, and focusing on yourself in the analysis. However, you keep bring up there are two copies. That “one is the original, the other is the clone.” So the probability “I am the Original” is 50%.
Do you realize that you are equating “I” with “a random one of the two” in this analysis? There is an underlying assumption of “I am a random sample” or “I am a typical observer” here.
For repeating the experiment, I am talking about being the Original in each iteration. You may come out as the Clone from the first experiment. You can still participate in a second experiment, after waking up from the second experiment, you may be the Original (or the Clone) of the second experiment. And no matter which one you are, you can take part in a third experiment. You can come out of the third experiment as the Orignal (or the Clone) of the third experiment. And so on. Keep doing this, and keep counting how many times you came out as the Orignal vs the Clone. What is the rationale that they will become roughly equal? I.E. as you repeat more experiments you will experience being the Original roughly half of the time. Again, the justification would be “I” am a random copy.
I am not saying the existence of other copies must be ignored. I am saying if you reason from the first-person perspective, imagine yourself waking up from the experiments, then it is primitively clear all other copies are not the “I” or “myself” questioned by self-locating probability. Because you are very used to take the god’s eye view and consider all copies together (and treating “I” as a random sample of all copies) I suggested to not pay attention to anyone else but imagine you as a participant, and focus on yourself. But evidently, this doesn’t work.
It is a tricky matter to communicate for sure. If this still seems convoluted maybe I shall use examples with solid numbers and bets to highlight the paradox of self-locating probability. Would you be interested in that?
Well, yes, sorry, for the snark, but… obviously! If you know how to make it concrete with numbers instead of wishy-washy with words, please do so!
Alright, please see this post. Which camp you are in? And how do you answer the related problem.