Thanks Ryan, I’ll update the section to your current numbers (Plan D → A = ~45%→~19% rather than ~45%→~7%).
You also say that a near-ideal Plan A is “roughly 2x lower risk,” so if I understand your view correctly, a large part of the gap is implementation quality. But for a plan that calls for an international agreement, my guess is that implementation quality is, in large part, a function of the depth of the political will behind it.
Thanks Ryan, I’ll update the section to your current numbers (Plan D → A = ~45%→~19% rather than ~45%→~7%).
You also say that a near-ideal Plan A is “roughly 2x lower risk,” so if I understand your view correctly, a large part of the gap is implementation quality. But for a plan that calls for an international agreement, my guess is that implementation quality is, in large part, a function of the depth of the political will behind it.